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    Golden Cross Provides Glimmer of Hope for Bitcoin Price Revival

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    • Bitcoin’s three-day chart is reporting a golden cross, a long-term bull market indicator, for the first time since February 2016. A similar crossover seen six months ahead of the August 2016 mining reward halving paved way for a mega bull run.
    • History may repeat itself with mining reward halving due in less than 12 months.
    • BTC may rise back to $10,000 in the next 24 hours or so with short duration charts signaling seller exhaustion.
    • A UTC close above $11,120 is needed to revive the bullish view. On the downside, key support is seen at $9,049 (July 17 low).

    Bitcoin’s (BTC) bulls have a reason to be optimistic despite the recent 33 percent price drop, as a long-term technical indicator has turned bullish.

    The 50-candle price average has crossed above the 200-candle average on the three-day chart, confirming a golden cross – a bull market indicator. That is the first such crossover on the three-day chart since Feb. 3, 2016, according to Bitstamp data.

    That long-term moving average crossovers are lagging indicators and have limited predictive powers at best is widely known. So, seasoned traders may consider the latest cross as a product of BTC’s rally from December’s low of $3,122 to June’s high of $13,880. After all, MAs follow price and, the longer the time-frame of the MA, the bigger the lag.

    Even so, the bulls can take heart from the golden cross, which has proved its mettle as a reliable indicator in the past, as discussed earlier this month.

    Golden crosses 2016 and 2019

    Bitcoin witnessed a golden cross in the three days to Feb. 3, 2016 – six months ahead of the mining reward halving – following which the cryptocurrency charted its way to a record high of $20,000 by December 2017.

    With another reward halving (effectively, a supply cut) due in less than 12 months, history may just repeat itself.

    As of writing , BTC is changing hands at $9,500 on Bitstamp, down 31.55 percent from June’s high of $13,880. The cryptocurrency could rise to $10,000 in the next 24 hours, according to the short-duration technical charts.

    4-hour chart

    The long-tailed doji seen on the 4-hour chart reflects the fact that sellers failed to keep prices at lows near $9,100 on July 28, with buyers pushing prices all the way back to $9,500.

    The candle widely considered a sign of seller exhaustion, more so since it has appeared following a more than 30-percent decline from June’s high of $13,880.

     Daily chart

    A bearish lower-highs pattern, as represented by the falling trendline, is intact. The 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) are also trending south.

    The 14-day relative strength index is reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print. The indicator, however, is now flatlining, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum.

    More importantly, dips to or below $9,400 have been consistently short-lived since July 16, also a sign of seller exhaustion.

    As a result, a rise back to $10,000 in the next 24 hours cannot be ruled out. That said, a bull revival would require a UTC close above the bearish lower high of $11,120 created on July 20.

    Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

    Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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